With Luck staying in college, who's the top QB in the draft?

So the deadline to declare for the NFL draft came and went this past weekend and Andrew Luck is staying in Stanford for another season. He'll be without his previous head coach and mentor Jim Harbaugh, who accepted the 49ers head coaching position just a few days ago. Luck's decision shakes things up as far as the draft goes, as he was expected to be the #1 overall pick.

Mel Kiper, ESPN's resident NFL draft expert and the guy with easily the most beautiful head of hair on the network (eat your heart out Kevin Negandhi), released his first mock draft yesterday. It looks pretty wide open now that Luck has taken himself off the board. It's a very hard draft to predict as there is no consensus top pick and many varying opinions on who is the top player at each position. Here's the link to Kiper's mock draft. You may need ESPN Insider to view it, so for those of you who can't view it, here's how he has the first round shaking out:

1. Panthers - Nick Fairley, DT - Auburn
2. Broncos - Patrick Peterson, CB - LSU
3. Bills - Marcell Dareus, DE - Alabama
4. Bengals - Da'Quan Bowers, DE - Clemson
5. Cardinals - Blaine Gabbert, QB - Missouri
6. Browns - A.J. Green, WR - Georgia
7. 49ers - Robert Quinn, DE - North Carolina
8. Titans - Von Miller, OLB - Texas A&M
9. Cowboys - Prince Amukamara, CB - Nebraska
10. Redskins - Cam Newton, QB - Auburn
11. Texans - Aldon Smith, OLB - Missouri
12. Vikings - Nate Solder, OT - Colorado
13. Lions - Akeem Ayers, OLB - UCLA
14. Rams - Julio Jones, WR - Alabama
15. Dolphins - Mark Ingram, RB - Alabama
16. Jaguars - Adrian Clayborn, DE - Iowa
17. Patriots (from OAK)- J.J. Watt, DE - Wisconsin
18. Chargers - Cameron Jordan, DE - California
19. Giants - Mike Pouncey, OT - Flordia
20. Buccaneers - Ryan Kerrigan, DE - Purdue
21. Chiefs - Stephen Paea, DT - Oregon State
22. Colts - Anthony Castonzo, OT - Boston College
23. Eagles - Gabe Carimi, OT -Wisconsin
24. Saints - Justin Houston, DE - Georgia
25. Seahawks - Ryan Mallet, QB - Arkansas
26. Ravens - Brandon Harris, CB - Miami
27. Falcons - Torrey Smith, WR - Maryland
28. Patriots - Mikel Leshoure, RB - Illinois
29. Packers - Christian Ballard, DE - Iowa
30. Jets - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE - Temple
31. Bears - Aaron Williams, CB - Texas
32. Steelers - Tyron Smith, OT - USC

Strange, there's really only a handful of skill position guys listed in Kiper's first round. The most significant movement is Blaine Gabbert as the #1 quarterback on the board and #5 overall pick. I originally thought the Cardinals would go after Mallett, but Gabbert looks much more NFL-ready at this point, so Kiper could be right about this one.

At 6-6, Mallett has the ideal size for an NFL quarterback and also possesses a huge arm. Before the season, Mallett was  regarded as the #1 quarterback on most people's draft boards, but has played himself out of that regard with his questionable accuracy and poor decision making in some key moments this season. Yes, he does have that cannon arm, but he's kind of statuesque out there despite decent mobility. When he does scramble out of the pocket his accuracy tumbles. He just hasn't shown the ability to improvise when his first option isn't there and it led a pick to seal the game for Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl a few weeks ago.

Here's the pick from the Sugar Bowl this year, he gets pressured and just makes a bad decision:

And I had to throw in this video I found while searching the youtubes, the tweaked out intro music over Steve Beuerlein's baffled mug is worth the watch alone....

In last week's blog, I speculated that Mallett would be taken by the Cardinals who own the #5 pick in this April's draft. Gabbert, however, may be more intriguing for a team that needs a quarterback fix quickly. Just two seasons ago the Cards were headed to the Super Bowl. With Larry Fitzgerald in his prime and a few other good, young receivers on the roster in Early Doucet and Steve Breaston, the Cardinals are a good quarterback away from being relevant again. Matt Leinart was finally given up on after he spent years being groomed and Derek Anderson and Max Hall just don't look like franchise QBs. Gabbert threw for 3,186 yards and 16 touchdowns this season and led his Missouri team to a 10 win record and a win in the Insight Bowl over a very good Iowa team. He looks like he could be the most ready of the available quarterbacks to step in to an immediate role in an NFL offense. He has a solid arm, is very accurate and makes good decisions in and out of the pocket. Peep him out in this QB camp from before the season, he looks pretty good...

Then there's the X-factor. Cam Newton. He's got the size, the speed and seemingly that winning attitude that permeates arrogance but also victory. It's off-putting at times but it seems to work to his advantage. He just seems like a winner, yes an annoying, highly cocky winner, but a winner nonetheless. Think A-Rod, Kobe and even Michael Jordan. He brings that same confidence and fieriness to the table. I wouldn't be surprised at all if someone gets infatuated with his skills and personality and take him much higher than anyone expects.

At this point Gabbert seems to be in the lead between the three top QBs, but a lot will change in the next few months as players will work out for teams and be judged in the scouting combine. It's also very possible that a team will look at Mallett's superior size and arm strength and decide that they can fix his bad decision making. Or maybe a team will be unable to pass on Cam Newton's skill set. Hell, with Luck dropping out, any of these guys could go #1 to the Panthers who need a QB. Anything can still happen, that's what makes it so fun to talk about. Thanks for reading!

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